STOCK CALL: CSR

Number of shares outstanding:887 847 500 (as at 09-11-06)
Looking at the HF06 Figures:

Business Segments -           HY06                  HY05
Building Products                   34                       44
Aluminium                              33                        32
Sugar -Milling                         40                        22
Sugar - Ethanol                      10                         7
Property                                   9                         31
                                               _____               _____
                                                 126                    136
Net Finance                           (18)                    (14)   (interest payments)
other expenses and rev.      0                         (8.2)
                                              ______               _____
                                               109                     114
Down 4.5% from pcp.


Now, looking at these figures, it property sales were about the same as last year, then Profit would be at least or better than last year.  The important sectors are Sugar, Aluminium and Building Products, which all did quite well.

My Sector Profit Figures for FYEM07

Building Products         60
Aluminium                    70
Sugar                             90
Property                       75
Corporate                    (15)
                               -------------
                                      280
Finance cost                (38)
                              --------------
Profit                            242

eps    242 000 000 / 878 000 000 = 27cps

Expecting sugar price to be in the range of $355 to $380 per tonne (avg 12-15cents per pound).

27 * 14.5 = $3.91 fair value

**TOTAL DEBT is $791 m - on profit of $250 m will take 791/250=3.1years to pay off which is comfortable.

Emotions

 NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - On our tour of your investing brain, the first stop is the amygdala (a-MIG-duh-luh), deep in the forward lower area of the brain. (There's one on the left side and one on the right.)

A key part of your brain's early warning system, the almond-shaped amygdala is a kernel of hot, fast emotions like fear and anger. If I threw a rattlesnake in your lap, you wouldn't ruminate about whether it was real or a rubber toy. You'd go flying out of your chair. That's the amygdala kicking in.

Vivid sights and sounds, such as clanging bells, hollering voices and waving arms, can set off the amygdala. Before you even figure out what the fuss is about, you break out in a sweat, your breathing picks up, your heart races. This primal part of your brain is bracing you for a "fight or flight" response.

And it isn't only the threat of physical danger that sets off the amygdala. Using MRI scans, neuroscientists have found that financial gains have a fairly strong effect on the amygdala -- and losses make it flare up like a hot coal. One recent study, led by Grafman of the NIH, found that the more frequently people were told they were losing money, the more active their amygdalas became. And a team of researchers led by Hans Breiter of Harvard found last year that even the expectation of losses sets off a burst of activity in the amygdala.

Long ago, on the plains of the Serengeti, there was probably no harm in confusing false alarms and real ones. If your amygdala sent you scrambling up a tree to escape a lion, you were safe; if what seemed like a lion turned out to be only a patch of brown grass rippling in the wind, having climbed up that tree did you no harm. But in the world of investing, a panicky response to a false alarm -- dumping all your stocks just because the Dow is dropping -- can be as costly as ignoring real danger. For one thing, it can cause you to flee the market at a low point and miss out when the market bounces back.

A moment of panic can also disrupt your long-term investing strategy. Activity in the amygdala can trigger the release of adrenaline, which has been found to "fuse" memories, making them more indelible. Research by Raymond Dolan of England's University College London has also shown that a financial losing streak heats up activation of the hippocampus, a part of the brain next to the amygdala that helps program our memories of fear and anxiety. That may help explain why market crashes, which make stocks cheaper to buy, also make investors less willing to buy them for a long time to come.

Keep in Mind - Part2

A couple years after I joined Money, I stumbled across an obscure academic article that shocked me. A psychologist had compared the investment results of people who received frequent news updates about their stocks against those who got no news at all. He found that no news is good news: Investors who were kept in the dark outperformed the news junkies by up to 56%.

Redouble your research -- If a stock or fund goes straight up, don't just enjoy the ride. The better an investment does for you, the more powerfully your brain will believe nothing can ever go wrong with it. Each time it rises, say, 50 percent, study it again more closely; ask what could go wrong; seek out negative opinions. The time to do the most homework is before bad news can catch your brain by surprise. There are no guarantees, but doing extra research just when things are going well is the best way to prepare yourself in case something later goes wrong -- or seems to. You'll then have a better sense of whether it's a false alarm or a real one.

Build an emotional registry -- Remembering what you did is only one way to learn from your own experience. Emotions can be an excellent guide to what you should and shouldn't do. But to use them as an accurate guide, you need to remind yourself of how you felt after your decisions (and their results). "Regularly evaluating whether an outcome made you feel good or bad," says University of Iowa's Antoine Bechara, "will help you learn from your behavior." Keeping a written record of your feelings -- what Bechara calls an emotional registry -- is a good idea, particularly if you are a younger investor. Store these "feeling records" alongside your trading records.

Look at the long run -- Remember that your brain perceives anything that repeats a couple of times as a trend -- so never buy a stock or a fund because its short-term returns look hot. Check out the long run, and never assess performance in isolation; always compare a stock or fund to other similar choices.